New WMO project to improve weather forecasts in Arctic and Antarctic

The rate of temperature increase in the polar regions is greater than in the rest of the world. Climate change directly impacts Indigenous populations, local communities, and those who work and operate in the polar regions. 

Therefore, the new project focuses on both scientific and societal issues to help meet the challenges and to leverage the opportunities provided by the heightened international interest in these regions, in part because they are rich in raw materials and natural resources.

“The project is intended to deliver knowledge that both society and the research community can use and further develop”, says Dina Abdel-Fattah at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, international coordinator for the project, which launched its website on 7 August.

It is one of a range of intiatives by the WMO community to improve climate services and forecasts in Polar regions, including through the establishment of regional climate centre for the Arctic, in view of the significance to the rest of the world and to the international climate policy agenda. 

This is in line with a decision by WMO’s Executive Council in June 2024 to strengthen monitoring, advocacy and collaboration on the cryosphere (frozen water). EC adopted four high-level ambitions for the cryosphere, including strengthening observations, forecasts and data exchange, 

The project is called "Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services" (PCAPS) and will run from 2024 to 2028. The work builds on, among other things, the previous WMO project The Polar Prediction Project (PPP). PCAPS is part of WMO's World Weather Research Programme (WWRP).

The project is also led by Jørn Kristiansen, director of the Development Centre for Weather Forecasting at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, and associate professor Daniela Liggett at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

Weather and Climate Forecasting 

Weather and climate forecasting involves monitoring and predicting changes in weather and climate to provide early warnings of potential hazards. This can include providing alerts about extreme weather events. Often, in the polar regions, alerts will concern wind speed, cloud conditions, precipitation, visibility, and sea ice.

The aim is to give communities time to prepare and adapt to these changes, in order to minimize damage to people, property, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

"An important part of this is understanding what information user groups in different areas need," says Abdel-Fattah. She explains that the interaction between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and other physical processes makes weather forecasting and weather and climate forecasting particularly challenging in the polar regions.

An exciting aspect of the project is that the natural science research will be guided and influenced by social research, and vice versa. Important topics here will be decision-making, risk assessment, and the value of weather and climate forecasting. Contact with service providers, Indigenous peoples, and other users will be an integral part of the project.

"In sum, PCAPS aims to facilitate the exchange of knowledge at the interface between science, users, and services," says Dina Abdel-Fattah.

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute is an active partner in international programs. PCAPS will increase our competence and improve our operational model systems and observations for weather forecasting and monitoring in the Arctic.

"This provides more reliable and accurate weather forecasts and a comprehensive historical time series of meteorological data, so-called reanalyses. PCAPS contributes to the further development of user-informed and research-driven services, where there is a good balance and mutual respect between the operations and research," says Jørn Kristiansen at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. 

Building a PCAPS Community 

Abdel-Fattah hopes that the project will attract individuals, companies, and research projects who want to collaborate on the polar themes.

One way to establish such collaborations is via WWRP's endorsement of projects, events, and initiatives that align with WWRP's goals.

"Approval from the SSC will provide international visibility and networking opportunities," she says.

Individuals can also participate in affiliated research projects  or attend open stakeholder events. These events will be arranged every year  in connection with the annual PCAPS Steering Group meeting, which will be held in various places around the world.

It is a goal that the results of PCAPS will contribute to the fifth International Polar Year (IPY) which will take place in 2032-2033.

The PCAPS website provides, among other things, research results from the project. You can also find more information about the project and its activities.