El Niño/La Niña Update (October 2023)
- El Niño is expected to fuel further temperature increases
- Impacts will continue into 2024
- It will exacerbate extreme weather and climate-events, like heatwaves, floods and droughts
- Early Warnings for All save lives
El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific started emerging during the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2023 and developed rapidly during summer, reaching a level consistent with a moderate El Niño by September 2023.
The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts indicate a high probability (90%) of El Niño continuing throughout the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter, with conditions at the peak of the event corresponding to a strong El Niño. Chances of a transition to ENSO-neutral are very low (10%). Drawing on evidence from historical warm Tropical Pacific episodes of similar proportions, it is anticipated that this event will have substantial and widespread effects on weather patterns through much of the tropics and beyond at least until end of 2023 and first quarter of 2024. This disruption is likely to have significant impacts on communities, economic activity or natural ecosystems in some regions. In the coming months, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor any change in the status of ENSO and promptly provide revised assessments, as necessary.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
