El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2022)

La Niña conditions continued across most of the tropical Pacific into early May 

2011. After peaking in strength around January 2011, the oceanic components of 

the episode weakened considerably, with a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean 

during March and April, approaching neutral conditions by mid-May. Despite this 

warming, the atmospheric indicators remained at near record La Niña levels during 

April, weakening only in early May, suggesting that some La Niña impacts may 

continue into June. This time of the year is known to be particularly marked by low 

forecast skill, but neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario for at 

least the season ahead. Development of El Niño or re-development of La Niña is 

not considered likely for the middle part of the year. Further developments during 

May and June are expected to enable a clearer outlook for the second half of the 

year.