El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2008)

La Niña conditions, which started in the third quarter of 2007, continue across 

the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. Basin-wide features are now typical 

of the mature stage of a La Niña event, including in the western Equatorial 

Pacific. The magnitude of the event continues to be in the middle range of 

those observed in the historical record. The La Niña event is expected to 

continue at least through the first quarter of 2008. Many La Niña events in the 

historical record are found to decay rapidly during the March-May period, but it 

cannot be determined at this time whether or not this event will decay during 

the same period. By the middle of the year, La Niña and, what is referred to as 

‘neutral conditions’ are considered to be about equally likely, with El Niño 

continuing to have a low likelihood of occurrence at this stage. Long-term 

statistics indicate neutral conditions should currently be considered a more 

likely outcome for the latter part of 2008.