The Ocean, weather, climate and the Earth system – new approaches and looking forward together

As a meteorologist, I’ve grown quite fond of this quote. I refer to it frequently when I’m explaining to people the tremendous changes that have taken place in the meteorological community in recent years. I think it captures the essence of our growing understanding that weather, water, climate and oceans are all inextricably linked, and so our work as individual meteorological and hydrological agencies, as well as our collaborative work together, must now reflect an Earth System Science (ESS) approach. The “Earth system” approach looks at the planet as a whole, linking the atmosphere, the ocean and hydrosphere, the terrestrial realm, the cryosphere and even the biosphere. Each of these affects the others, and understanding the oceans is integral to our ability to predict our Earth System.

Historic changes

A depiction of the Earth System Science framework linking the atmosphere, ocean, hydrosphere, and cryosphere while including the fundamental biological and chemical contributions and the effects of human factors.(Image courtesy of University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

An outcome of this shift is an historic and significant change in the way meteorologists do their jobs and accomplish their mission. Thanks to rapid technological advancements and the proliferation of scientific data and information at our fingertips, we have moved from making basic forecasting predictions to providing faster, more accurate, impact-based forecasts, and products and services tailored to the needs of our users and partners as they make decisions. These decisions address society’s increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water and climate events, all influenced by accelerating global climate change. In addition, the world’s demand for environmental intelligence is increasing, often across multiple disciplines. This increases the importance of integrating our forecasts and decision support across the weather, water and climate continuum.

As society becomes increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, water and climate events, the need to take a more integrated ESS approach becomes ever more essential. The demand for increasingly useful, accessible and authoritative meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic information and services is growing as we collectively seek to implement smart mitigation and adaptation decisions by citizens, governments at all levels, and international institutions. These information and services are critical to support national agendas for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation as well as to build resilience to the impacts of high impact weather, climate and water extremes. They also provide an essential underpinning to support the development and implementation of National Adaptation Plans under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC) and other UN system needs for humanitarian and crisis management.

In response to these challenges, the WMO is in the process of historic change. In 2019, the 18th World Meteorological Congress adopted several critical decisions to position the Organization and its Members to break down bureaucratic and disciplinary stovepipes to better serve societal needs. One decision was the adoption of a WMO Strategic Plan, which sets a new course for the WMO – ensuring its relevance for decades to come by establishing a framework within which Members can successfully address these needs. By 2030, the WMO envisions a world where all nations, especially the most vulnerable, are more resilient to the socio-economic consequences of extreme weather, climate, water and other environmental events; and underpin their sustainable development through the best possible services, whether over land, at sea or in the air. Reflecting an integrated and inclusive approach, the new Strategic Plan:

• Advances an Earth System, fully-coupled approach to science and technology
• Advances understanding of stakeholder needs and improving service delivery
• Embraces the evolution and growth in partnerships and capacity development that enhance the observation, forecast and service abilities of WMO Members – including the growing private sector.

Through this process, WMO elevated the ocean as an essential component of the Earth System. Members welcomed this and agreed for WMO to move forward with a strategic approach ensuring that the work across a broad spectrum of ocean-related activities are connected within WMO and reach across essential partnerships.

Closing ceremony of the 21st session Conference of Parties (COP21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) after the historic adoption of the Paris Agreement.

WMO and Ocean Partnerships

Embracing an integrated, Earth System approach also means that the ocean and atmosphere communities need to work closer together and collaborate across the entire value chain, which includes the areas of observations, data management, modelling and forecasting, and services delivery. This value chain is underpinned by multidisciplinary research as well as capacity building. In support of this commitment (also in 2019), the 18th Congress and the 13th Session of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO created the WMO-IOC Joint Collaborative Board (JCB). The JCB is an advisory and coordination body to promote high-level collaboration and broad engagement of the relevant bodies of the WMO and IOC with the intent to work together to advance our mutual objectives.

The JCB is now developing a Joint Strategy to maintain, strengthen and promote links among the weather, climate and ocean communities in order to achieve the Visions of both the WMO and the IOC. 

Within that Strategy, we see opportunities to work collaboratively to improve the scientific dialogue and interdisciplinary services to make them more accessible to developing countries. In addition, we see opportunities to jointly advance the global observation and numerical modelling system to provide a foundation for efficiently addressing the increasing requirements for decisions related to a wide range of applications, from maritime safety and transport, to agriculture, energy, health and water resource management.

The JCB is well-positioned to provide an opportunity to enhance coordination and cooperation among the well-established regional bodies of the WMO and the IOC such as the WMO Regional Associations and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Regional Alliances. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO Member States and Territories and National Oceanographic Institutes will now have an opportunity to collaborate more closely to improve weather forecasts, including for extreme events. In addition, the partnerships with other UN bodies – for example, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for shipping and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) for fisheries – can be harnessed to promote broader understanding among the coastal states on ocean data collection and science driven sustainable actions. The UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021- 2030 will offer another opportunity to demonstrate the transformative role of the ocean in weather forecasts.

I believe we can successfully meet these global challenges by proceeding in a spirit of partnership among the many disciplines across the physical and social sciences. We must take advantage of advances in our field to ensure all Members have the capabilities to effectively respond to increasing vulnerability to extreme weather water and climate events. Together, we can position ourselves to deliver the science and services necessary for mitigating impacts of extreme events and protecting lives and livelihoods globally.

Footnotes