Early Warnings for All in Focus: Hazard Monitoring and Forecasting

To inform planning and better target assistance, WMO conducted a Rapid Assessment of the hazard monitoring and forecasting capacity of the 30 countries selected for initial support under the Early Warnings for All Initiative.

The assessment was structured along the following seven elements of the hydrometeorological value chain: legal framework and institutional mechanisms of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs); observation infrastructure; hazard monitoring capacity; use of remote-sensing data; use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and forecasting tool application; impact-based forecasting capacity; as well as warning services and early warning system operations. It was also aligned with outcomes of the Pillar 2 Implementation Strategy.

For each of the seven elements, a set of quantitative and qualitative data was collected in the course of structured interviews based on established early warning system (EWS) assessment methodologies (Multi-hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) Checklist, Country Hydromet Diagnostics (CHD)). The responses were then weighted and analysed to determine capacity levels for each element. These levels were ranked on a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 represents advanced capacity and 1 represents no or less than basic capacity.

In addition to appraising the general hazard monitoring and forecasting capacity of the 30 countries, the Rapid Assessment examined their preparedness to address the top five hazards (self-identified) from a hydrometeorological perspective. Whereas more in-depth analysis by hazard is required, the assessment served to detect gaps in the observing and forecasting capacity for these specific hazards. Important enabling environment factors have further been considered, such as the existence of legislation, governance mechanisms and financial as well as technological capabilities.