El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2022)

La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific have persisted and strengthened as trade winds intensified during mid-July to mid-August 2022. It is likely that these conditions will continue at least for the remainder of 2022, becoming the first “triple-dip” La Niña event of the 21st century. WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts predict the continuation of the current La Niña over the next six months, with a 70% chance in September-November 2022 but gradually decreasing to 55% in December-February 2022/2023. The probability for the return to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions is estimated to be around 30 to 40%, for the same periods, respectively. The chance of El Niño developing is near-zero in September-November increasing to very low (around 5%) towards the end of forecast period (December-February 2022/2023). National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.