East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum predicts weaker-than-normal monsoon

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) actively supports the activities of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF), which brings together experts to produce seasonal, regional climate predictions and information. By bringing together countries with common climatological characteristics, these RCOFs ensure consistency in the access to and interpretation of climate information. The East Asia Winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF) is one such RCOF, which was jointly established by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and Mongolia's National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) in 2012.

The Eleventh session of EASCOF was held at JMA's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, from 6 to 8 November 2023 with a face-to-face format for the first time in four years after restrictions related to COVID-19 were lifted. This forum was hosted by JMA and involved long-range forecasters and climate experts from the abovementioned agencies and research institutes in Japan. The Forum also welcomed Dr. Wilfran Moufouma Okia as the first-ever direct attendee from WMO.

Taking into account the ensemble predictions produced by global coupled models and the effect of the El Niño and sea ice condition, experts reached a consensus summary that the coming East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is likely to be weaker than normal overall, although cold spells are likely to have more chance to affect some parts of East Asia than normal.

Forum materials are available on the EASCOF portal.