El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2024)
- The 2023/24 El Niño event is now showing signs of ending.
- WMO Update predicts at least 60% chance of La Niña during July-September
- Average global sea surface temperatures remain exceptionally high
- Seasonal forecasts inform early warnings and support early action
The 2023/24 El Niño event is ending. Since its peak during boreal winter, sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have steadily weakened. The latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts give equal chances (50%) of ENSO-neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August 2024.
Slightly later during July-September, La Niña conditions are more likely than not, with around 60% chance, while ENSO-neutral is estimated with around 40% chance. During August-October and September-November of 2024, there is a 70% chance of La Niña prevailing, with a 30% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions. The likelihood of El Niño redeveloping is negligible during this time. Historically, seasonal forecast models at this time of year are known to have relatively low skills, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere "spring predictability barrier", and therefore these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
