El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2025)

As of mid-February 2025, the equatorial Pacific is characterized by weak La Niña conditions, with slightly cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the east-central region, a pattern that has been present since December 2024.

The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to become closer to average, with a 60% chance of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2025, while there is a 40% chance of La Niña conditions to persist. Forecasts for the subsequent overlapping period April-June 2025 suggest about 70% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions becoming established, while the chances of La Niña conditions will further reduce to about 30%. The chance of El Niño developing is negligible during the forecast period (March to June). Considering the well-known ‘spring predictability barrier’, which implies more modest levels of skill for current ENSO predictions, it is particularly important to exercise caution when interpreting long-range ENSO forecasts at this time of year. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.